A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
